Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.3%
Middlesbrough
26.4%
Draw
15.3%
Oxford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Middlesbrough
vs
0.70
Oxford
Markets
BTTS41.1%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.540.6%
Over 3.520.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.2%
2-0
12.8%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
10.8%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
6.9%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
4.8%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.2%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).