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14 Sept 2024 · 17:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.9%
Aston Villa
32.8%
Draw
29.3%
Everton

Expected Goals (xG)

1.18

Aston Villa

vs
1.01

Everton

Markets

BTTS45.8%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.566.1%
Over 2.537.4%
Over 3.517.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
15.2%
0-0
13.1%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.9%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
4.0%
3-1
3.1%
3-0
3.1%
1-3
2.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).