Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.9%
Aston Villa
32.8%
Draw
29.3%
Everton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Aston Villa
vs
1.01
Everton
Markets
BTTS45.8%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.566.1%
Over 2.537.4%
Over 3.517.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
15.2%
0-0
13.1%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.9%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
4.0%
3-1
3.1%
3-0
3.1%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).