Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.4%
Derby
27.6%
Draw
33.0%
Norwich
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Derby
vs
1.30
Norwich
Markets
BTTS56.4%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.576.8%
Over 2.551.5%
Over 3.529.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
1-2
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.6%
0-2
5.5%
3-1
4.2%
1-3
3.4%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).