Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.8%
Watford
29.3%
Draw
42.9%
Middlesbrough
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Watford
vs
1.36
Middlesbrough
Markets
BTTS49.5%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.570.6%
Over 2.543.5%
Over 3.522.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
10.0%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
0-2
8.3%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
4.9%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).